Conflict Blotter

Reuters’ Adam Entous has the fascinating back story on why Israeli banks decided to sever ties with banks in the Gaza Strip. Bank Hapoalim, the first bank to decide to cut off Gaza, said it was doing so simply because the government had declared Gaza an “enemy entity.” But that now seems to be only part of the story. Israel’s Discount Bank, reports Entous, unknowingly turned over three million shekels, or about $750,000, to the Hamas-run Executive Force. Now, with Israel authorities investigating, the Discount Bank and other Israeli banks fear they may have broken the law.

The investigation by Israel’s anti-money laundering authority centres on how shekels from Discount Bank, Israel’s third biggest, ended up in accounts held by the Hamas Executive Force at the Palestine Islamic Bank in the Gaza Strip when Abbas’s government paid salaries in early August.

According to investigators, the Palestine Islamic Bank received the shekels from the Bank of Palestine, which in turn got them from Discount Bank under a long-standing arrangement. Bank of Palestine officials had no immediate comment.

“Unbeknownst to Discount Bank, it was clearing money for the Executive Force,” said a senior Israeli official.

Israeli regulators said banks including Hapoalim have been pushing for months to sever banking ties to Gaza, arguing there was little profit in it and no way to know whether their shekels could end up with Hamas, putting the banks in legal jeopardy.

The Israeli banks’ decision to sever ties with Gaza means a looming cash crunch in the territory. There will literally be a dwindling supply of hard currency as importers, unable to pay by check, will have no choice but to use only cash. Gaza banks have been urged to establish parallel branches in the West Bank to prevent a total financial meltdown in the event that the strip becomes financially isolated. Gaza banks will start to shut down by year end, according to the governor of the Palestine Monetary Authority. It’s a prospect Hamas is clearly worried about, as it went to great lengths today to try and allay banks concerns by paying their people from suitcases of cash and keeping them away from the ATMs.

So what will happen to Gaza if the supply of hard currency does start to dry up? The most recent real world example I could find was Zimbabwe’s 2003 cash crunch after Mugabe’s economic whiz kids changed the currency but didn’t issue enough new bank notes. No doubt there are a dozen differences between Zimbabwe and Gaza, but here’s what the BBC reported in August 2003 on the Zimbabwe currency crisis:

In recent weeks local banks have been crowded with thousands of ordinary Zimbabweans seeking to get money. Many workers are not getting their salaries paid. Some banks have been restricting withdrawals to Z$5,000 a day. Unemployment is rising and inflation has risen to a record level of 365%, one of the highest rates in the world.

Needless to say, it’s not just Israel that is having its secrets exposed by Google Earth. The Federation of American Scientists, which is one of the premier sources for military data of all kinds, has been doing some pretty sophisticated sat photo analysis on their Strategic Security Blog. Yesterday, they published new Google Earth photos of two Chinese ballistic missile submarines and provided extensive analysis.

Also check out this blogger at IMINT & Analysis, who has listed hundreds of coordinates for SAM Missile batteries he’s found around the world using Google Earth. With the date he’s acquired, he has written up detailed analyses of Iran and Syria’s air defense systems.

Both are remarkable examples of the sort of advanced intelligence that is now available to laypeople.

From today’s Yediot:

Sensitive installations, Air Force bases with their planes and helicopters, missile bases and even the nuclear reactor in Dimona have never been photographed better. A recent Google Earth update shows satellite pictures that make it possible to see clear, sharp pictures of military and civilian targets all across Israel.

Up until recently, the satellite pictures of Israel on Google Earth had a particularly low resolution: every pixel was equal to 10-20 meters. Now, the satellite maps of Israel show great parts of the country with a resolution close to two meters per pixel.

Here’s an example of one internet thread of amature analysis about the new Google Earth images of Israel’s Uvda Air Force Base (see pic below). I’ve never had the pleasure of sitting in on a spy briefing, but I would imagine transcripts read much like this. I can imagine this sort of stuff must drive traditional military intel types bronkers.

RedKing: Found this airfield in southern Israel while looking for the Shizafon armor training center. Thought at first it was Ovda AB, but that’s clearly visible about 23 miles to the south. Looks like they’re packing a few squadrons of A-4s. Any ideas?

Spitfire_mkv: Ouvda (Uvda) Airbase (Canaf 10). New airbase built for the IDF/AF by the USA, opened 1981. Replacement for Etzion AB. Located north west of Eilat, in the southern Negev region, near the Jordanian border. ICAO code: LLOV. Location coordinates: N29 56.2 E034 56.5, elevation: 1492 ft (455 m). Consists of two parallel runways (both 020/200 degrees) of lengths 8530 ft (2600 m) and 9843 ft (3000 m) respectively. Civil operations ceased when Akaba International in Jordan began to serve Elat. The civil apron was at the far end of the shorter runway, while the miltary area was alongside the longer runway. Currently home to 137, 143, 145 and 202 squadrons.

Yediot’s star military correspondent Alex Fishman says the new Google Earth photos “must make us realize that such terms as ambiguity and state secrets are becoming obsolete as technology leaps forward.”

It is simply a striptease. We feel like we’re dressed, but in fact we’re not. We are transparent. The State of Israel, with its sensitive installations, has lost another scarf veiling its charms. If up until now we were undressed only by the superpower satellites, then now, with the improvement in the quality of satellite images from Google Earth, Israel’s most secret spots are becoming visible not only to any ephemeral intelligence organization—but to any Internet surfer.

Below you can see an overview of the Negev desert community of Dimona, and Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor about 30 km to the southeast. You can also see the site of one of the IDF’s white spy blimps.

Below, Google Earth imagery of the Dimona nuclear reactor.

A closeup of an Israeli spy blimp on the ground southwest of the Dimona nuclear reactor.

Israel’s Palmahim Air Base just north of Ashdod. I’ve flown over this air base in a helicopter and if I recall, the row of square shaped births just east of the runway are occupied by Apache helicopters. This is also the base from which Israel launches the Arrow interceptor missile, designed to intercept and destroy ballistic missiles.

Of course, Google Earth has other ways of getting into trouble also. The borders it has drawn through Jerusalem haven’t sat well with some in Israel.

This is bad news for those of you who oppose the expansion of settlements and favor a two-state solution.

The Samaria and Judea (Shai) District Police will move its headquarters to the controversial E-1 area, which links Jerusalem with the West Bank settlement of Ma’aleh Adumim, by the end of this year, regardless of whether or not the United States approves, Public Security Minister Avi Dichter told Haaretz this weekend.

It is feared the police stations is the first step toward resuming work on 3,500 housing units on the plot of land known as E1, located east of Jerusalem in the settlement of Maale Adumim. Work was frozen on E1 three years ago in response to an international outcry and strong US opposition.

The E1 bloc, those who oppose it say, would complete the Jewish encirclement of Arab East Jerusalem and mak a contiguous Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as it’s capital impossible. Israeli rights lawyer Danny Seidemann said last year that building E1 would mean the “death of the two state solution.”

There’s a rumor circulating throughout Gaza that Hamas spokesman Ghazi Hamad and Ismail Haniya advisor Ahmed Yussuf held direct talks with Israel’s deputy defense minister Matan Vilnai to discuss relaxing the siege and expanding the ceasefire. It’s been reported here and here on the Fras Web site, which I’m not familiar with, but which I understand is run by Fatah. Hamad and Yussuf reportedly slipped out of Gaza and went to Tel Aviv for the meeting. Doubtful.

There’s no reason to lend much credence to the rumors. It’s probably just a Fatah disinformation campaign aimed at making Hamas look like hypocrites. Then again, why not? Hamas and Israel surely have back channel communications of one sort or another — if for no other reason than Shalit. Also, the status quo in Gaza is not really sustainable, which means Israel and Hamas are going to have to reach some sort of modus vivendi eventually.

Why? First, if things get too much worse in Gaza from a humanitarian perspective, and that’s where they’re headed, the international community’s heat on Israel is going to get unbearable. Second, despite Barak’s recent warnings, a broad offensive against Gaza to stop the Qassams remains remote. It’s just too costly in terms of loss of life and international image. Hamas is the only entity that realistically has a chance of stopping the rockets on Sderot and Israel surely knows that. Third, reaching some sort of understanding with Hamas may give the Islamists an incentive not to try and torpedo the November peace conference and ensure it’s not a total flop.

In the past year I’ve had dozens of conversations with colleagues, experts, politicians, analysts, etc, about whether or not Al Qaeda is present in Gaza, especially foreign, non-Palestinian jihadis. As such, this news caught my eye today.

Hamas has extradited a wanted Al-Qaida militant to Egypt in exchange for Cairo’s agreement to allow dozens of stranded Hamas and Islamic Jihad members to return to the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian news agency Maan reported on Monday. 

The not always reliable Debka file claims the Al Qaeda militant turned over to Egypt was Muhammed Fayad Ibrahim from Nebi Saweil near Cairo. They reported he was Al Qaeda-Egypt’s senior liaison officer with Osama bin Laden and that he gained asylum in the Gaza Strip in July.

If true, it’s interesting that an Al Qaeda militant would have turned to Gaza for refuge and was able to smuggle himself into the territory without a problem. The fact that Gaza is so cut off from the outside world has always been one of the arguments against Al Qaeda establishing itself there.

So if it’s all true as reported, the big question is what he’s been up to since July. Has Hamas had him in custody? Who’s he been staying with? And what would it really matter even if there was an active Al Qaeda cell in Gaza?

It’s not surprising that Hamas didn’t stomach an Al Qaeda operative’s presence for long. Even if Hamas did feel the need to justify itself after Zawahiri criticized the movement for the Mecca accord, Hamas’ relationship with Egypt is too important. That being said, Egypt didn’t get their jihadi for cheap. Hamas got an estimatd 85 militants let back into Gaza. And symbolically speaking, this deal with Egypt represents perhaps the first time it has cracked the international siege since June.

The Jerusalem Post’s Khaled Abu Toameh appears to have been badly misled on this story about a video of an alleged Hamas honor killing in the Gaza Strip. The paper’s Web site is currently leading with the story. Too bad the disturbing video looks to be a 2004 April 2007 clip of a Yazidi girl in Iraq being beaten by a mob of angry men. Reports the Post:

This time it’s the brutal murder of a 16-year-old girl in the Gaza Strip. Her crime: “dishonoring” her family. Of course, there is no way to verify the allegations against her and other females who have fallen victim to “honor killings.”

The gruesome murder occurred a few weeks ago, when the girl - who looks much younger than her age - was dragged into the street and handed to an mob of angry young men.

Eyewitnesses told The Jerusalem Post that many of those who participated in the lynch were Hamas members and relatives of the girl.

Here’s the video still run by the Jerusalem Post.

And here’s the 2004 CNN clip of the Yazidi girl.

UPDATE: Here’s the correction printed in yesterday’s Jersualem Post.

The Kuwaiti press claims a pair of scoops on the September 6 Israeli air strike in Syria.

The Al Jerida newspaper reported Friday that retired Iranian general Ali Reza Asgari, who defected in February, gave Israel the intelligence on Syria’s missile program used in the Syrian airstrike. After the former deputy defense minister and Revolutionary Guard commander disappeared during a visit to Istanbul in February of this year it was widely reported in both the English and Arabic press that he was providing a gold mine of info to Western intelligence agencies.

Meanwhile, Kuwait’s Al Watan newspaper, citing senior European diplomats, reported Friday that US jets provided air cover to the Israeli fighter jets during the Syrian air strike. Writes Al Watan:

The sources said Washington had intensified its efforts to corner Assad, in order to make him confront the two opposing factions within the ruling regime. One of those factions is calling for direct retaliation against Israel, while the other prefers avoiding entanglement in a conflict whose results are uncertain, fearing the possibility that the Israeli air raid is an attempt to provoke a knee jerk reaction from Syria and draw it into a war that will extend to Iran.

Haaretz’s always provocative Bradley Burston’s offers a fresh Israeli take on Ahmadinejad:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is simply one of Israel’s premier diplomatic and security assets. His expressed views make Israel look pragmatic, clear-eyed, non-paranoid.

He has denied away the Nazi Holocaust as a myth. He has, as well, denounced Israel for Nazi-like actions. Referring to last year’s Lebanon war, he was quoted as saying “Just like Hitler, the Zionist regime is just looking for a pretext for launching military attacks” and “is now acting just like him.” And, just for good measure, he added: “What this regime is doing is even worse than Genghis Khan.”

We couldn’t have created the man if we had tried. He is everything we want in a neo-Haman nemesis. 

Ahmadinejad has certainly been an asset to an Israeli government seeking to convince world leaders that perhaps a nuclear Iran wouldn’t be such a swell development.

Asharq Alawsat reports today (arabic) that Hamas has announced a new plan to share control over the security services in Gaza. The short of it: Hamas will temporarily transfer responsibility for the security services, presidential headquarters and all the crossings into Gaza to the Egyptian government, until the security services can be reconstituted along national and merit-based guidelines that include both Fatah and Hamas. In exchange, Hamas wants Fatah to lift the restrictions on its activities in the West Bank.

Earlier this month, Hamas ordered militants to stop attacking crossings into the Gaza Strip.

Other recent headlines out of the Gaza Strip have included Hamas’ beating up worshippers at Friday prayers, its inability to collect garbage from Gaza’s streets, and the refusal of both Saudi and Egypt to deal with its leaders.

In contrast, the headlines out of the West Bank have largely revolved around the November peace conference and a measure of renewed hope that a settlement of some sort with Israel may be possible.

I have a few observations. First, there is the appearance that Hamas is losing this stage of the power struggle with Fatah. As things deteriorate in Gaza, Hamas is growing more and more heavy handed and desperate to compromise. Fatah, by comparison, is remaining confidently steadfast in its refusal to deal with Hamas, and, at least for now, can bait Palestinians with Abbas-Olmert peace talks and the prospects, however remote, of substantive progress toward a peace deal.

Second, with each new compromise Hamas offers (no shelling crossings, turn over control of security, etc) it suggests that the international community’s much maligned policy of squeezing and isolating Hamas may actually be working.

Third, Israel’s response to Hamas’ modest concessions has been to tighten the stranglehold on Gaza. Israel declared Gaza a hostile entity, Israeli banks are starting to sever all ties to the territory, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak is warning of a broad Israeli offensive against Gaza. It would appear Israel has no incentive to back down as long as it thinks its policies are working.

Finally, backed into a corner, Hamas will eventually snap. The question is, how? The first instinct is to warn they will again flip the switch on suicide bombings against Israel. It was reported over Yom Kippur that a suicide belt found in an apartment in the trendy Tel Aviv neighborhood of Neve Tsedek was a Hamas operation. But there is reason to doubt that Hamas will return to the tactic of suicide attacks that it used during the second intifada. Though Hamas members will never admit this, there is a consensus among many Hamas analysts that the Islamists concluded that their suicide bomb campaign damaged the movement as Palestinians partly blamed Hamas for the tough Israeli countermeasures including the wall. There is also a big question mark around the movement’s ability to effectively wage such a campaign today, given the Israeli lock down on the West Bank and Gaza. Finally, a new Hamas violence campaign would only further alienate the international community, especially countries like Egypt and Saudi, whose support is crucial to Hamas.

We may not know how or when Hamas will finally react, but as the June takeover of Gaza proved, Hamas will not sit idly by when it perceives it faces an existential threat.