Israel blames Hamas for firing a longer range Katyusha into southern Israel yesterday. The Popular Resistance Committees claimed responsibility for the attack, and it’s a matter of debate to what extent the PRC and Jihad and other factions are firing rockets with a nod from Hamas. In past weeks, there have been several reports of Hamas stepping in to stop Al Aqsa, Jihad and others from firing rockets at Israel without Hamas consent.
That being said, with Gaza going to hell under its watch and their modest compromises rejected, Hamas’ best chance of shifting the political momentum back in its favor, is by baiting Israel into overreacting in Gaza. A punishing Israeli offensive in the Hamas-run territory would make it politically costly for Abbas to continue peace talks with Olmert, and would keep countries like Saudi away from the November conference. It would also earn Hamas a groundswell of public sympathy from across the Arab world. And reports such as this one suggest the Islamists are preparing for an armed showdown.
6 responses so far ↓
1 Todd Shishler // Oct 8, 2007 at 9:28 pm
wow, that’s a profoundly cynical analysis. You’re suggesting that Hamas will offer up their families for slaughter for political ends? Hamas is not an external body, it’s the people who live in Gaza. It’s basically like last summer’s smear that Hezbollah uses their families as human shields. It’s an argument with an enormous burden of proof when it is not delivered as outright state propaganda of the crudest sort. To prepare for an attack is a whole lot different than to wish for the death of your neighbour to score some basically worthless political points. I’m surprised a journo with (presumably) experience being bombed would make such a flip comment.
2 Charles Levinson // Oct 8, 2007 at 9:47 pm
all war involves loss of life, both soldiers and civilians. when deciding matters of war or peace political leaders calculate cost-benefit and throughout the course of history they have frequently chosen war. Hamas is no different. It’s not an attack against them. I’m simply looking at the current situation from their vantage point and coming to the conclusion that at this point in time they stand to benefit from an Israeli offensive against the Gaza Strip.
3 Henry Huttinger // Oct 8, 2007 at 11:01 pm
On a lighter note… hey Charles. Remember me from Cairo magazine? I just heard about your blog from a friend Brian who’s working at the Friends School in Ramallah. He and I visited Adel for coffee this summer in Cairo, and had yet another riveting conversation… Anyways, it’s a great site! Good luck!
4 David Samuels // Oct 9, 2007 at 12:40 am
First, you have a great blog, and you write consistently good stuff. But there is something unexamined and analytically stale about a framework in which Hamas attacks are a device in which to “bait” Israel into “overreacting” in Gaza. What your language assumes is that the Hamas attacks are a nuisance and Israel is in control of events. While that assumption might have been true ten years ago, or even five years ago, it is not true now, when Hamas represents the democatic choice of the Palestinian people and the sole political power in Gaza. If Israel stopped its nightly killing raids in the West Bank tomorrow, it seems doubtful that Fatah would last out the month there, either.
Hamas has no intention of letting any kind of actual peace deal between Olmert and Abbas go forward — why should they? Hamas fires missiles at communities inside Israel because they refuse to accept the legitimacy of the Israeli State. The terms of any possible deal between Abbas and Olmert will not be acceptable to Hamas, because accepting such terms would mean abandoning everything that Hamas stands for. Hamas is at war with Israel - and now also with Fatah. The Hamas attacks are meaningful not simply because they kill people but because Hamas has the active or passive support of a more sizeable and more committed part of the Palestinian population than Fatah — whether you believe that support is actually a “majority” or not.
When Hamas chooses to ratchet up the missile fire and the terror bombings to truly painful levels — which they have not yet done — the Israelis will have no choice but to respond, for the simple reason that Hamas will keep killing, on its own or by proxy, until the Israelis do respond. That after all is the purpose of the killing. The point at which an Israeli response is “balanced” or “appropriate” is a matter of opinion. Is that 10 dead? 100? Two more kidnapped soldiers? Five more? All Hamas has to do is produce the appropriate number of bodies. No matter how many people die, any strong Israeli response to a Hamas provocation is sure to be seen as “overreacting” by Arab governments, none of which seem especially keen on midwifing the division of Jerusalem with Israel or abandoning the Palestinian “right of return.” Does the Saudi King Abdullah want to stand with Mahmoud Abbas on the White House lawn? I doubt it. Which in turn means Hamas can choose the time and place that they blow this latest peace scheme — and Fatah’s last shred of credibility — out of the water.
This isn’t intended to justify “disproportionate” Israeli responses to missile fire and terror attacks etc., only to show that any argument or moral equation premised on the idea that Israel is in control of events is wrong. It seems more accurate now to say that Hamas is in control of events — because they have a strong belief in the righteousness of their cause, a good command of the tactics of their chosen brand of warfare, and the men and the weapons to keep fighting. They also enjoy the public backing of significant sectors of Arab opinion, including the Saudis.
Similarly, the situation in Gaza is not a ticking time bomb for Hamas. Gaza is a strategic asset that has allowed Hamas to train their men and acquire weapons and munitions that are more sophisticated than anything they’ve had in the past. Political control of Gaza gives the leadership time to train and plan a soft or hard takeover of the West Bank.
This is not 1996 or even 2002. Hamas is a much more powerful force now than it was before, and has the power to move events, particularly on the Palestinian side. To imagine that it is possible to cut a deal with Fatah that leaves Hamas out in the cold is a fantasy that will be paid for in blood. And if Israel can’t or won’t make a deal with Hamas - on its own, or as the major power behind an Abbas-led coaltion government — then it is hard to see how the conflict will end anytime soon.
5 Pappe // Oct 9, 2007 at 4:35 am
>>>>”last summer’s smear that Hezbollah uses their families as human shields”
What ever you want to say about last summer - and both sides had done wrong - it is clear that the first 500 civilian casualties on the Lebanon side were families of Hezbollah.
Hezbollah used their activist’s homes to hide their long range missiles. In some homes specially build rooms were the build as a launching pads. Israel had full intelligence on these homes and took them out within 38 minutes of the start of the Arial bombing campaign. As many as 500 family members were hit as collateral damage from these bombings – including many women and children – about 150 died.
Now, who do you blame for their death: Israel or Hezbollah – that is something we can argue about.
6 greenmamba // Oct 9, 2007 at 6:30 pm
>>>> You’re suggesting that Hamas will offer up their families for slaughter for political ends?
A society that has accepted the terribly unearthly practice of gratuitous suicide killing should not be expected to behave rationally. It’s too late for that.
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