There’s a rumor circulating throughout Gaza that Hamas spokesman Ghazi Hamad and Ismail Haniya advisor Ahmed Yussuf held direct talks with Israel’s deputy defense minister Matan Vilnai to discuss relaxing the siege and expanding the ceasefire. It’s been reported here and here on the Fras Web site, which I’m not familiar with, but which I understand is run by Fatah. Hamad and Yussuf reportedly slipped out of Gaza and went to Tel Aviv for the meeting. Doubtful.
There’s no reason to lend much credence to the rumors. It’s probably just a Fatah disinformation campaign aimed at making Hamas look like hypocrites. Then again, why not? Hamas and Israel surely have back channel communications of one sort or another — if for no other reason than Shalit. Also, the status quo in Gaza is not really sustainable, which means Israel and Hamas are going to have to reach some sort of modus vivendi eventually.
Why? First, if things get too much worse in Gaza from a humanitarian perspective, and that’s where they’re headed, the international community’s heat on Israel is going to get unbearable. Second, despite Barak’s recent warnings, a broad offensive against Gaza to stop the Qassams remains remote. It’s just too costly in terms of loss of life and international image. Hamas is the only entity that realistically has a chance of stopping the rockets on Sderot and Israel surely knows that. Third, reaching some sort of understanding with Hamas may give the Islamists an incentive not to try and torpedo the November peace conference and ensure it’s not a total flop.
6 responses so far ↓
1 Green // Oct 2, 2007 at 4:19 pm
Charles,
It’s Vilna’i.
2 Charles Levinson // Oct 2, 2007 at 4:25 pm
cheers Green. thanks for the catch.
3 Dr. S. C. Yuter // Oct 2, 2007 at 6:43 pm
Charles,
I am the author of a July 2006 book subtitled “Doing Business With Hamas” based on their 10-year hudna offer. So their current ceasefire offer is authentic. Only Hamas can deliver what I call a 10-year business peace in Hamas.
Sy
4 Dr. S. C. Yuter // Oct 2, 2007 at 6:43 pm
That last Hamas should be Gaza.
5 Pappe // Oct 2, 2007 at 8:00 pm
Yuter,
Ever been to Gaza ?
Oil is very cheap there indeed. Also great Beaches – just what Tourist want. Too bad you can not drink beer or (if you are a woman) wash in the sea with a Niqba…
I really admire westerns who decide they understand Hamas better than hamas understand themselves and they know what hamas means. Hamas wants an “hudna” as a mean to get stronger and in time to take all over the area that is a Palestinian Wakf land (they don’t even have nationalistic Palestinians goals). You should really try and make an effort to understand better who you are suggesting doing business with…. Too Funny.
6 ella // Oct 2, 2007 at 9:39 pm
Hudna is Hudna, i.e. armistice. Of course it is not peace agreement, and Hamas wants hudna to get stronger. That’s the often the reason for armistice, particularly considering the fact that this was the reason for the first Hudna under Muhammad.
But the reason for offering Hudna does not exclude the acceptance of Hudna, if it is advantageous to the accepting country. However the country accepting it must always remember that it is Hudna and not a peace offering.
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