Conflict Blotter

Asharq Alawsat reports today (arabic) that Hamas has announced a new plan to share control over the security services in Gaza. The short of it: Hamas will temporarily transfer responsibility for the security services, presidential headquarters and all the crossings into Gaza to the Egyptian government, until the security services can be reconstituted along national and merit-based guidelines that include both Fatah and Hamas. In exchange, Hamas wants Fatah to lift the restrictions on its activities in the West Bank.

Earlier this month, Hamas ordered militants to stop attacking crossings into the Gaza Strip.

Other recent headlines out of the Gaza Strip have included Hamas’ beating up worshippers at Friday prayers, its inability to collect garbage from Gaza’s streets, and the refusal of both Saudi and Egypt to deal with its leaders.

In contrast, the headlines out of the West Bank have largely revolved around the November peace conference and a measure of renewed hope that a settlement of some sort with Israel may be possible.

I have a few observations. First, there is the appearance that Hamas is losing this stage of the power struggle with Fatah. As things deteriorate in Gaza, Hamas is growing more and more heavy handed and desperate to compromise. Fatah, by comparison, is remaining confidently steadfast in its refusal to deal with Hamas, and, at least for now, can bait Palestinians with Abbas-Olmert peace talks and the prospects, however remote, of substantive progress toward a peace deal.

Second, with each new compromise Hamas offers (no shelling crossings, turn over control of security, etc) it suggests that the international community’s much maligned policy of squeezing and isolating Hamas may actually be working.

Third, Israel’s response to Hamas’ modest concessions has been to tighten the stranglehold on Gaza. Israel declared Gaza a hostile entity, Israeli banks are starting to sever all ties to the territory, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak is warning of a broad Israeli offensive against Gaza. It would appear Israel has no incentive to back down as long as it thinks its policies are working.

Finally, backed into a corner, Hamas will eventually snap. The question is, how? The first instinct is to warn they will again flip the switch on suicide bombings against Israel. It was reported over Yom Kippur that a suicide belt found in an apartment in the trendy Tel Aviv neighborhood of Neve Tsedek was a Hamas operation. But there is reason to doubt that Hamas will return to the tactic of suicide attacks that it used during the second intifada. Though Hamas members will never admit this, there is a consensus among many Hamas analysts that the Islamists concluded that their suicide bomb campaign damaged the movement as Palestinians partly blamed Hamas for the tough Israeli countermeasures including the wall. There is also a big question mark around the movement’s ability to effectively wage such a campaign today, given the Israeli lock down on the West Bank and Gaza. Finally, a new Hamas violence campaign would only further alienate the international community, especially countries like Egypt and Saudi, whose support is crucial to Hamas.

We may not know how or when Hamas will finally react, but as the June takeover of Gaza proved, Hamas will not sit idly by when it perceives it faces an existential threat.