Ever since John Bolton first leaked the North Korea nuclear connection to Israel’s air strike in Syria two weeks ago, I have been skeptical. It seemed a bit too self-serving given Bolton’s own confrontationalist approach to North Korea. I was more inclined to believe those suggesting the strike was simply meant to send a message to Iran and Syria that Israel can and will strike deep in Arab territory (regardless of Russian air defenses), can do so with impunity, and can do so with barely a squeak of international condemnation, even from other Arab states.
But it now seems that the North Korea-linked nuclear site explanation is becoming the dominant and most widely accepted narrative. There are some strong arguments as to why it makes more sense. As Bruce Reidel, from the Brookings Institution points out in the Washington Post, it seems unlikely that Israel would have taken such a bold and risky step just to send a symbolic message.
There is no question it was a major raid. It was an extremely important target. It came at a time the Israelis were very concerned about war with Syria and wanted to dampen down the prospects of war. The decision was taken despite their concerns it could produce a war. That decision reflects how important this target was to Israeli military planners.
One of the reasons myself and other skeptics were so taken aback by the North Korea angle was that it seemed so out of the blue. There have been no stark warnings or recent leaks about Syria’s burgeoning nuke program, or about new reasons to fear North Korea is again intent on diseminating its nuke know how. Syria has rarely been tagged as a nuke-seeking state by Israel or the Bush administration, and North Korea seemed to be inching in fits and starts towards a diplomatic solution over its own nuclear program.
Of course there are obvious tactical advantages to striking without any sort of forewarning in the form of diplomatic protests or leaks to the press. But the fact that Israel, no doubt with a nod from Washington, decided to go straight for the military solution to an alleged Syrian nuke program seems like one result of the failure of diplomacy in curtailing Tehran’s nuclear program. In the case of Iran, in fact, the public awarness campaign against Iran has been as empowering for the Shiite theocracy as the nuclear program itself.
The months and months of America’s, Israel’s and other’s shouting about Iran’s nukes has made Tehran even more a symbol of defiance and the standard bearer for an entire region that feels it has just as much right to the worlds’ most advanced weapons as the imperialist West. Iran’s defiant bluster in the face of American attacks has been more potent in this case than its bite. In the case of the Syrian strike, Israel hit first, not allowing any opportunity for Syria to become a symbol as Iran has. That is one of the reasons public reaction across the Arab and Muslim world has been largely muted. Given the months and years of build up, can you imagine a similarly muted reaction when and if the US or Israel decide to strike Iran?
22 responses so far ↓
1 Jenin // Sep 21, 2007 at 1:21 pm
It was clear that it was indeed North Korean from the day Israeli press dismissed the Amanpur “Iranian weapon to Hezbollah”
They knew it all along but were not allowed to tell.
As For Iran: For Israel Iran in 2007 is the same as Germany in 1938. In 1938 no one defended Europe and the Jewish people. Soon, Israel and the US will do what they think is needed to remove the Iranian threat on world peace.
The 1st question to ask is : Will Assad still be the Syrian president at that time or will he pull a Kadafi and open kimono to the west in exchange for immunity from ‘regimen change’ ????
Events in Lebanon in the next few weeks will give us the answer.
2 Mahmud // Sep 21, 2007 at 4:56 pm
What I do not get is why Syria isn’t screaming bloody murder over this bombing raid.
Violations of another countries sovereignty and bombing a country’s territory is a pretty heavy escalation of the status quo and cease fire. Under international law, Syria is allowed to engage in a ‘proportionate’ response, but has acted with surprising amounts of restraint (not saying that they’d be justified to start shelling the Golan, just that it would be legally in their rights), instead they’ve been curiously silent about the whole thing. Clearly they don’t want to tangle with the Israelis, regardless of what is going on in the north which suggests to me that Israeli perception of a maniacal Bashar Al-Assad who has been ready to go to war the whole summer has been overstated (to say the least).
Still, why they aren’t going and crying bloody murder to the UN and asking for a UN resolution condemning the recent attack, I do not know. Their response, if anything has been pretty muted. Which mirrors a very quiet Israeli response, quite unlike the time they bombed Iraq in 1981.
My only (loose) theory is that Israel is attempting to blackmail Syria with evidence about whatever was going on in the North. If there really was nothing there, I bet the Syrians would have dragged a news crew out there and shown them the rubble (ie: Aspirin factory in Sudan, or the US bombing in Iraq during the sanctions period). Israel is holding something over the Syrians, presumably for a restart of the peace negotiations on Israel’s terms or cutting off Hizbullah.
If Syria refuses, we’ll see the Israeli’s go public with their evidence, if they don’t, the story will be forgotten come the next crisis in Lebanon.
Total Conjecture.
3 Jenin // Sep 21, 2007 at 6:35 pm
“If there really was nothing there, I bet the Syrians would have dragged a news crew out there and shown them the rubble ”
I am sure it was just a milk factory and syrian kids are now dying due to malnutrition.
4 lally // Sep 22, 2007 at 5:56 am
This rash of Syria stories is all about conditioning Americans for a future attack by Israel on Syria and Hezbollah concurrent with a US/French/UK?/German?/NATO? mobilization against Iran.
The IAF will do some targeting with the USAF in Iran; they and the IDF have been training for another shot at Hezbollah and this time, Syria, since last summer.
Alon Liel in Ynet several days ago has a whole ‘nother scenario about what did or din’t happen and why. He thinks the IAF was running an intel mission for US. He said the northeastern part of Syria has never concerned Israel but that Americans were very anxious about it.
That route is also one of the easiest geo- politically for the IAF to fly. US flying tanks can easy refuel F-16Is. The Turkish military has to turn a blind eye.
We all know that some countries in the ME are more sovereign than others. Look at Lebanon.
Syria has made the requisite complaint to the UN. For some strange reason, they have no expectations .
Someone said something about the people with Olmert and Bush for leaders deserve them. Let’s hope we don’t get the nightmare of a Bibi and Rudi team in the future.
5 Robin // Sep 22, 2007 at 3:45 pm
Charles,
What is missing in your citing of the Brookings Institute report is the question “Who are the people of the Brookings Institution?” The report you are mentioning came specifically out of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy. Simply citing what the Brookings Institute is reporting leaves out the VERY important fact that Haim Saban, who funded this sub-group donated 13 million dollars to seed it in 2002 has stated publically on the record, “m a one-issue guy and my issue is Israel”. Saban is a huge media mogal with holdings in the US and Germany. Its current director is the veteran pro-Israel lobbyist Martin Indyk, who had earlier founded the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, an AIPAC spinoff, to counter the Brooking Institution which was seen as not pro-Israel enough. The major think tanks in America fly under the radar for the average Joe on the street, but THEY are the one’s driving US policy. I think that EVERYONE should take note of WHO is purveying this latest “information” and the more than obvious motivations behind distributing “information” which is MORE than obviously biased. Then one must ask the question “Why would a party seek to distribute information?” and WHO would it benefit. Obviously it would be Israel with the given FACTS of who is in charge at the Saban Center and their publicly stated purposes as individuals.
6 ella // Sep 22, 2007 at 10:29 pm
Mahmud
I have read somewhere that there were rumours of nuclear weapons development in Syria one year ago. In view of recent Israeli raid on Syria they might have been true.
As for Syria not crying bloody murder, there is a recent resolution “initiated by a Islamic nations, pushed through a U.N. atomic watchdog resolution on Thursday urging all Middle East nations to renounce atomic weapons.
…One clause urged all nations in the Middle East, pending creation of a nuclear weapons-free zone (NWFZ) there, not to make or test nuclear arms or let them be deployed on their soil. The other urged big nuclear arms powers not to foil such a step
Reuters 20.09.07.”
How would these nations looked like if Syria was really developing nuclear weapons with the help of North Korea, particularly if Syria was one of the initiator of such resolution?
I think that might explain relative silence from the Syrian side.
7 Green // Sep 22, 2007 at 10:37 pm
Charles,
How do you explain the fact that North Korea jumped up to stand by Syria and condemn the attack, something even the Arab states refrained from doing?
8 Shual // Sep 23, 2007 at 4:06 am
Green,
“These unacceptable maneuvers reveal negative Israeli intentions toward current discussions to achieve peace in the Middle East.” [Mussa] “These violations add only tension to the region at a time when all parties should work on pacifying the situation, not making it worse.” [Gheit]
= The Arab States have more important things to do than to “comment” on the daily terror of “thruths” out of the US-Israeli-propagnada-circus that intends to create an athmosphere of “urgency” in the Iran-case. They know that the “facts” of el-Baradei do not lead into the wishes of US-Israeli [and french] hawks for stronger sanctions against Iran. They do not want that the childish actions of Olmert + Co. against Syria affect their own policies. And they do not belive in “an axis of cooperation between Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and Hamas that is responsible for the violence in the region.” [Nicolas Burns, 08.17.07]
Or is “condemned” only reserved for “provocative move by the Zionist regime”-blahblah? The hit comes amidst tensions between the League and Syria [more Saudis vs Syria - Mekka-affaire, or Syrian “hampering of Saudi Arabia’s incessant efforts to limit Syrian intervention in Lebanese internal concerns.” [Jumblatt]] So you can bet, that the Saudis/League have their own problems with Syria and will not attend the hysteria around “possible” nuclear ambitions of Syria. On the other hand they demonstrated unity at IAEA-meeting over the weekend against Israeli WMDs and I think thats another proove that arab “Realpolitik” has understood that to pant behind Israeli military adventures [condemnism] does not lead into one solved question. Get them into the discussion about “key-topics” does.
PS: Your base is a George G. Szpiro-article, I guess.. who explains that “fact”. Well, … not everybody who resides in Jerusalem tells you facts. So its good that you asked Charles…
9 MrIncognito // Sep 23, 2007 at 4:45 am
The Times online is reporting that Israeli commandos captured nuclear material from the site prior to the airstrike, that US tests confirmed the material was North Korean, and that North Koreans were killed in the operation.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article2512380.ece
10 Mahmud // Sep 23, 2007 at 6:52 am
Hey Ella,
To be honest, Syria probably isn’t terribly interested in looking especially hypocritical with regard to their nuclear resolution. If anything, they can argue (convincingly at that) that their pursuit of a Nuclear program is in response to Israeli aggression (sept. 6 bombing), belligerence (military maneuvers all over the summer), and pursuit of nuclear weapons (see Olmert’s confirmation of this over the summer). They’d then be able to use the example of the soviet union and agree to end their nuclear program in return for their resolution.
Now, my little theory about Black mail…
hmm…
” Israel seized North Korean nuclear material from Syria: Sunday Times LONDON, Sept 23 (AFP) - Elite Israeli forces seized North Korean nuclear material during a raid on a secret military site in Syria before Israeli warplanes bombed it September 6, Sunday Times reported Sunday.It quoted well-placed sources as saying the commandos seized the material from a compound near Dayr az-Zwar in northern Syria and that tests of it in Israel showed it was of North Korean origin. An unidentified senior American source quoted by The Sunday Times added that the US government sought proof of nuclear-related activities before allowing the air strike by F-151 warplanes to go ahead.(Posted @ 09:00 PST)”
My bet is that the Syrians didn’t agree to whatever backroom deal Israel offered them.
11 Compulsive Reader // Sep 23, 2007 at 3:34 pm
Nuclear “material”. Like the stupid tubes? “Administration sources” would like to thank you for your groundless speculation. We appreciate your contribution to the war effort. Keep up the good work! Jesus is on you side! You too, Charles. Thanks for the dissemination of our dissembling! You play a key roll in our agenda.
12 Compulsive Reader // Sep 23, 2007 at 3:47 pm
N.K. is trying to get out from under the thumb of sanctions and receive some assistance so as to stave off a violent revolt from its own people. Its in delicate negotiations with a bellicose aggressor state, and is only safe due to an strained relationship with China. So, why would they put these in danger by sending them to a part of the world that is under more surveillance than Piccadilly Circus? Why does that sound like the dumbest fucking thing you could do? Maybe because it was made up in the basement of the Pentagon and the Knesset?
13 yaacov // Sep 23, 2007 at 3:59 pm
Back in the 1980s Rudolf Rummel estimated - after collating various independant sources - that the North Korean regime had already murdered at least one million of its own civilians. The number hasn’t gotten any smaller since then. The thought that they’re afraid of a violent revolt from their own people is, how to put it, quiant. As is the thought that they’re really trying hard now “to get out from under the thumbs of sanctions”. Alas, they can’t do so, because of the evil Pentagon and Knesset.
Where do you get these ideas from?
14 Shual // Sep 23, 2007 at 4:18 pm
CR, Jesus is NOT on your [beeeep] neo-Marxist-Site!
Lets go the easy way: “Iran uses another force subordinate to it, and that is the Lebanese Hezbollah forces, in order to help train the groups in Iraq. And due to their presence in Iraq, we were able to arrest the leader of secret groups and the deputy leader of elements belonging to the Lebanese Hezbollah, which were formed to help the Quds Force train Iraqis … As for Syria, it allows thousands of foreign fighters to cross through Damascus Airport, and this has created serious problems in Iraq.” [Petreaus - September 03 - link below.]
Guess what happens if the US bomb a suspected “training-site” or “weapons-cache” in Syria? Crisis, Outcry, Chaos, UN-Nations get wild, hordes of anti-american Marxists [:-)] flood in the streets of Chicago and demonstrate. The Wall-Street bangs down and the olil.price rushed up to 120US$.
Hm.. what happens if the Israelis do that job? Well, nothing happens.
Link: http://www.alqanat.com/news/shownews.asp?id=83553
15 ella // Sep 23, 2007 at 8:08 pm
Mahmud
I believe that after “victory” of Hezb over IDF Syria got cocky. They also might have thought that their nuclear program is very well hidden. They were wrong.
I also think majority of arab countries would like to have a nuclear programs (and nuclear bomb) but there is a difference between having nuclear programs and getting catch having nuclear programs. In the first case it is a rumours and they can easily deny having any program, in the other case they are caught in the act and can no longer so strongly object to others having nuclear weapons.
I still think that Syria is not protesting too much because of its situation vis a vis other arab countries. It is quite telling that KSA recently refused to meet with Syrian guy regarding improvement of relations between two countries.
I also don’t see how Syria can do USSR on others, CCCP was a major power, Syria is not. Also the circumstances are quite different.
As for backroom deal, I really don’t see how could it work. Syria is now getting serious investment money from IRI, around 10 bln USD in the next couple of years. In Lebanon they already can do what they want, including killing with impunity anti-syrian and anti-hezb politicians as well as having Hezb as their partner so with that kind of monetary help and nearly free hand in Lebanon they would not be inclined to any deal.
You may be right that it was a blackmail from Israeli side, but I also think that if Syria started serious nuclear program Israel would bomb it regardless of any deal…………………..just in case.
Shual
Pasdaran always rely on others to do their job.
btw there are also rumours in Iran that some people from Lebanese Hezb are training in interogation in some of the Iranian prisons.
16 Robin // Sep 23, 2007 at 9:05 pm
since the above incident,
IAF sends fighter jets after Syrian aircraft
Jets sent out in search of aircraft after it disappeared from IDF radar. Aircraft found crashed on Syrian side of the border, not believed to have been on hostile mission
The IDF sent Israeli Air Force fighter jets after a Syrian aircraft that disappeared from IDF radar Saturday.
According to IDF sources, the Syrian aircraft was later found on the Syrian side of the border, after it had crashed.
Sending IAF jets after unidentified aircraft which fall off the radar is a standard method of operation in the IDF, the sources said.
Saturday’s incident was the height of the recent tensions between Israel and Syria, following Israel’s breach of Syrian airspace a few weeks ago and Syrian President Bashar Assad’s statements regarding “the option of war”.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3452129,00.html
I won’t speculate on this other than to say it seems VERY odd. The plane “crashed” WITHIN Syrian territory.
17 rmd // Sep 24, 2007 at 12:46 am
North Korean, yes, nuclear, no, maybe SCUD parts.
See armscontrolwonk.com.
18 lally // Sep 24, 2007 at 12:55 am
Ynetnews !
“US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is coming to Israel on Tuesday to “say thank you” for the alleged Israeli air force operation in Syrian territory, Dr Alon Liel, a former director-general of the Foreign Ministry, told Ynetnews.
Addressing the numerous media reports which claim Israeli jets penetrated Syrian territory, Liel said: “I think what we did, if we did it, is work for Americans. Maybe even as an intelligence operation for the Americans, and therefore I think she (Rice) came to say thank you, more so than to discuss Palestinian affairs,” the former top diplomat said.
Northeast Syria, where the jets were said to have flown, according to Damascus, “is not an area that bothered Israel in the past, this is an area that bothers the Americans very much,” Liel added. “We did work for them, as you know they pay a lot so that we work for them. Seemingly they are satisfied. This has helped them to complicate the Syrians and push them deeper into the axis of evil,” he added.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3450421,00.html
The IAF was embarassed about reports about their scrambling jets to confront a flock of migratory birds.
19 lally // Sep 24, 2007 at 1:01 am
More from Ynet, this time on the daring commando raid:
“According to the Sunday Times, the IDF raid in Syria was aimed at collecting samples of nuclear material, but Dr Ephraim Asculai of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University, who is also a former member of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the report was “hallucinatory”.
“We hear different versions of what happened every day,” he told Ynet. “The report leads us to believe that the soldiers took samples of the material in a bottle and left. The nuclear material may have been enriched uranium or plutonium – it is very dangerous to transfer this material by hand.
“Furthermore, these materials are some of the most costly in the world and are usually kept in safes, especially if they were smuggled. I don’t understand how (soldiers) could enter these secure labs and leave with such samples,” he said. ”
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3452598,00.html
20 ella // Sep 24, 2007 at 5:07 am
Oh, well.
We can speculate, but right now it seems that claims and counterclaims are dime a dozen and everybody have their own take on the event.
As for the bottle, there are bottles and then there are bottles, some are “normal” and some are specially adapted to transfer certain materials.
21 Citizen journalism: where did the Israelis bomb? « Foucault blog // Sep 24, 2007 at 11:08 am
[…] territory. At first, very little was known, as sources were uncharacteristically mum. Slowly, it became apparent that there was a nuclear angle, and a North Korean […]
22 Kebz // Sep 25, 2007 at 9:48 pm
The alleged nuclear angle is a ridiculous smear and the Syrians are pretty outraged about it. In fact Mahmud, they have been crying blue murder over it since it happened and rightly so as it was an unwarranted act of aggression against a sovereign nation. Just look at the behaviour of our western media over this. They are reporting the nuclear angle as fact, even going as far as to put words into the mouths of the Syrians. This is one UPI article,
http://www.sciencedaily.com/upi/?feed=TopNews&article=UPI-1-20070924-17153200-bc-israel-syria-1stld.xml
which states:
‘Senior Syrian officials said Monday the U.S. airstrike on a Syrian nuclear facility Sept. 6 has ruined all chances of peace with Israel.’
Apparently this is the Syrians acknowledging they had a nuclear facility whereas what they were actually saying was more like this.
‘A Syrian cabinet minister ridiculed the speculation about any co-operation with North Korea.
“All this rubbish is not true. I don’t know how their imagination has reached such creativity,” Bouthaina Shaaban said.
“Regretfully, the international press is busy justifying an aggression on a sovereign state and the world should be busy condemning it instead of inventing reasons and aims of this aggression” ‘
http://www.cp.org/english/online/OnlineFullStory.aspx?filename=w091858A&newsitemid=34298024&languageid=1
As usual you guys are playing along with the propaganda and lies emanating from the warmongers.
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