Conflict Blotter

Ever since spring we’ve been hearing in the local media and elsewhere that Israeli intelligence and military officials thought the summer of 2007 would be eventful. They warned of war with Syria, or a round two with Hezbollah, or with a shodown with Hamas in Gaza. But the summer just ticked on quietly. The alarmists seemed mistaken.

Suddenly, however, Israel’s northern border with Syria and its southern border with Gaza have both heated up. Ever since a Qassam rocket struck a nursery school in Sderot the pressure on the government to act has been increasing. Though today’s incursion into southern Gaza appears at this early stage to be limited in scope, and though the Security Cabinet has decided on restraint for the time being, it is looking increasingly like an eventual full scale invasion of the Gaza Strip is a foregone conclusion. The first time a Qassam rocket causes any sort of significant casualties, which will happen one of these days, the government is going to find the public outcry leaves it little choice but to drastically escalate its military response.

Haaretz is reporting that one of the decisive arguments for restraint within the Israeli security establishment is the rising tensions with the Syrians and the wish to avoid a conflict on two fronts. The Syrians alleged today that Israel may have bombed undisclosed targets in the northeast of the country last night. The Syrian Arab News Agency actually referred to an “ammo drop” instead of an air strike. I guess a fighter jet may jettison ammo, without hostile intent, if it needs to shed weight for whatever reason, to keep it aloft or to increase its maneuverability. The Israeli Air Force, which is reportedly in the middle of a large exercise, often trains in Turkish air space not far from the Syrian border.
Tensions have been high all summer between Israel and Syria. Last night’s alleged incident, if it turns out to be true, is precisely the scenario — in which an Israeli exercise is misinterpreted by the Syrians and causes a chain reaction that leads to war — that analysts have been warning about for months.

UPDATE: The more I think about it, it seems that the Syrians decision to dub it an “ammo drop” rather than an air strike is an indication that the Syrians are intent on deescalating and downplaying whatever actually happened last night. The Israelis, by refusing to confirm or comment on the incident, are playing along, and thus also helping to defuse what could have been a prickly situation.