At today’s summit in Sharm al Sheikh look for Israel to make a number of minor concessions to Abbas, such as increased security cooperation, shipments of armoured cars and bulletproof vests to West Bank security forces, issuing more VIP permits to Palestinian businessmen, and the release of more Palestinian tax dollars.
But Olmert has already indicated he will hold back the one concession that will have the most immediate impact on the largest number of Palestinians: the removal of the over 500 roadblocks that make vehicle travel in the West Bank virtually impossible for Palestinians. Olmert is caught between the Bush administration which is pressing him to lift at least some of the roadblocks and his security establishment which fears Hamas will resume suicide attacks against Israel and insists the roadblocks are the single most effective means of stopping those attacks.
Olmert has asked for his security establishment to come up with a middle ground, but the most recent reports suggest no compromise is imminent. Haaretz quoted Olmert as telling the following to his security chiefs:
We have a crazy cycle here. If you do not lift the roadblocks, Abbas will head back into the arms of Hamas - and you are told that you did him wrong. On lifting the roadblocks, you [the security chiefs] say to keep the situation frozen. We must find a median path.
Abbas is also unlikely to deliver. Israel will be looking for guarantees and action against militants in the West Bank. In recent days Abbas has already begun saying the right things. In his speech to the PLO executive committee on Wednesday he called for all West Bank militias to disarm. He has already begun taking strong steps against Hamas and its Ezzedine al Qissam militia in the West Bank, but he is almost certain to face insurmountable obstacles when he tries to move against the equally troublesome Fatah-linked militias such as the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades and its offshoots.
Israel is unlikely to be mollified as long as Al Aqsa continues to run loose in the West Bank and it is highly doubtful that Abbas will be have the political clout to move against Al Aqsa, especially after Fatah’s decisive defeat in Gaza.
Expect today’s summit to amount to little more than a public show of support by Egypt and Jordan for Abbas.
5 responses so far ↓
1 litho // Jun 25, 2007 at 2:59 pm
Charles, a couple of questions.
First, regarding the “decisive defeat of Fatah” in Gaza, the Jerusalem Post yesterday printed an interview with Ayman Taha in which he came very close to alleging that Hamas had basically been set up by Fatah. He talks of a ceasefire agreement between the two that needed only a final meeting to be ironed out, but it was scotched at the last minute in a phone call by Abbas to Mashaal. Then, once the fighting starting the Fatah forces basically just melted away and let Hamas take over.
The whole thing struck me as self-serving. I was wondering if you had any insight into it.
Second, folks in the blogosphere are writing about Hamas militants shooting unarmed prisoners in their custody. Do you know if that’s happened, and is Hamas planning any disciplinary action against militants who may have done that?
2 Charles Levinson // Jun 25, 2007 at 5:05 pm
Ayman Taha has said several times since Gaza fell that Hamas never intended to take over everything that it did, but had no choice once it realized the scrty forces had bolted. He was primarily referring to Abbas’ compound when I heard him make these statements. I think it’s possible that Hamas never intended to take Abbas’ compound precisely so that it wouldn’t be accused of overthrowing the government in a coup. Notice Abbas’ residence was carefully protected by Hamas in the fighting’s immeidate aftermath. On the flip side, Abbas’ Presidential Guards were pretty fiercely loathed by Hamas, and in general, despite my above points, I tend to be pretty skeptical about Taha’s claims. I think Hamas was gunning for the whole pie and only made such claims afterwards to save face and as a feeble attempt to convince Abbas to resume contacts with the group.
In Gaza, we heared scattered reports of Hamas summarily executing surrendering Fatah fighters. It was hard to know what was true, what was exagerrated, and what was false. Obviously Fatah has interests in exagerrating Hamas’ brutality and Hamas has interests in downplaying their excesses.
I’m sure it happened. There is no question that Hamas is capable of such ruthless behavior. I don’t think it was as widespread as Fatah and some bloggers have claimed.
Of course, there were those such as Samih al Madhoun, who were powerful symbols of everything Hamas detested in Gaza, and who were ruthless figures themselves, who were publicly executed.
Lastly, I’ve heard from locals in Gaza that Hamas has been using some sort of secretive courts to mete out justice in Gaza. One of the punishments they apparently hand down is to be shot in the leg.
Throughout the Hamas-Fatah conflcit, kneecappings, in which captured enemies are shot one or many times in the legs and then dumped in the street, were common by both parties to the conflict.
3 litho // Jun 25, 2007 at 6:02 pm
Thanks.
4 Global Voices Online » Palestine: Sharm Expectations // Jun 25, 2007 at 7:37 pm
[…] Levinston briefs us on what is expected from an Arab Summit at Sharm El Sheikh on the latest Palestinian infighting. […]
5 Dreamland Manor // Jul 19, 2007 at 11:28 pm
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