Dion Nissenbaum’s account of Fatah’s collapse in Gaza is a must read:
Whether it was conspiracy or collapse, Fatah’s downfall in Gaza has created an unexpected opportunity for Israel, the United States and others to re-establish full relations with Abbas and the pro-Western emergency cabinet he’s installed to replace the elected, Hamas-dominated Palestinian government.
But the story of Fatah’s final hours in Gaza is a reminder of how tenuous Abbas’ position may be. If he becomes too cozy with Israel, he can be accused of betraying the Palestinian cause. Angry Fatah fighters could view their sense of betrayal as reason to turn on Abbas, or at least temper their support for him.
And the rout could be repeated if Fatah’s weaknesses that were so apparent in Gaza are duplicated in the West Bank.
My rational side keeps telling me the conspiracy theory, that Abbas in cahoots with the Bush adminsitration decided to surrender Gaza, is hogwash, but I find it so sexy and tempting. In any case, I think Dion hits on a crucial point when he talks about angry Fatah fighters turning on Abbas, but I think he understates it. Watch for key Fatah figures, such as Marwan Barghouthi, Hani al-Hassan, and perhaps even Jabril Rajoub, to turn on those Fatah leaders such as Dahlan who are widely seen as too closely aligned with the US/Israel agenda here.
10 responses so far ↓
1 Solomon2 // Jun 20, 2007 at 6:11 pm
Catch Nissenbaum’s personal blog post on Hamas’ conquest of Gaza here.
2 Anonymous // Jun 21, 2007 at 2:11 am
Charles, I think I’m with As’ad Abu Khalil on this one - read his “In Defense of the Conspiracy Theory” in Al-Akhbar
http://www.al-akhbar.com/files/pdfs/20070620/p16_20070620_opinion.pdf
I mean, the way I see it, the problem with conspiracy theories in the Middle East isn’t that they’re all rubbish, it’s that there’s so many real ones that sometimes it’s just tough to distinguish the real ones from the fake ones!
3 Italian // Jun 21, 2007 at 10:54 am
If Fatah/Israel/US truly planned a conspiratorial surrender, why the utterly embarassing Fatah intelligence archive was not secured in advance and left in the hands of Hamas?
4 Italian // Jun 21, 2007 at 10:56 am
military/political leaders can be or appear to be coward and treacherously passive, especially when they are traditional notables confronting fanatic, ideologically motivated and disciplined militants. This is exactly how revolutions happened in the 20th Century, from 1917 Bolsheviks to Italian Fascists in 1920.
5 Italian // Jun 21, 2007 at 10:59 am
What would the press say now if the Presidential Guard actually placed its heavy weapons on the roof and started shelling a heavily populated area (e.g. the Lebanese army in these days)? Ruthless strongmen are spreading Palestinian blood to defend their power, to say the least.
6 Hani al Hassan turns on Fatah leadership // Jun 29, 2007 at 10:24 pm
[…] readers will remember that I predicted 10 days ago that some senior Fatah leaders, including Hani al Hassan, may turn on the Fatah wing that is seen […]
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10 Etiketer // Aug 4, 2008 at 12:55 pm
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